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With the Writers Guild of America striking since Monday, Nov 5th, it should be interesting to see how this will go, as it will seriously cut into this season’s tv schedule and upcoming movies (though that may not be felt till up to 2009) as well as set a new precedent for how the business will deal with future and current developments like streaming of episodes/movies over the internet. (Already a practice, like CBS’s Innertube, for which the writers don’t see a cent, but which has seriously cut into revenue from syndication.) <– note: you have to be from the US to view the content (or somehow access through a US proxy setting)

So this will be mainly some interesting links and observations about developments.

First off, it comes as no surprise which side the usual trade publications like Variety are taking, considering who owns them, but Deadline Hollywood Daily is a great source for a more balanced (though pro-writers) source.

This blog entry by a writer is a pretty good explanation what it’s all about.

Wikipedia also has an article for the anticipated 2008 Hollywood Strike, which seems all the more likely now since the SAG (Screen Actors Guild) has already pledged open support to the WGA and their contract (as well as the Director’s Guild’s contract) will run out in summer 2008. The last strike lasted six months, but was mainly over the summer when no new episodes of tv shows are shot (albeit it cut into shows’ schedules anyways), so this is unlikely to be resolved any time soon.

(Here is a list of pre-strike movies that are still set to be produced.)

To further complicate things, the AMPTP (Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers) aren’t all that averse to the strike, as the tv producers see this as the best way to purge themselves of weaker shows they don’t want, especially since there hasn’t been a real new breakout show this season. Which explains their John Wells PR move.

The first programs to be hit are Late Night TV like Conan or Jay Leno, with regular shows running out of eps around January (which will cut into February Sweeps and thus cost the networks a ton of ad revenue). This of course depends on the individual networks. CBS, with a line-up of mainly procedural shows that tend to do well in re-runs, won’t be hit as hard as ABC, whose shows like Lost or Grey’s Anatomy draw few viewers for re-runs, since their episodes aren’t self-contained.

As it looks now, it’s unlikely most tv shows will get more than half the usual number of episodes a season so expect an onslaught of “unscripted” reality TV.

“More money - Les Moonves!”

Update Nov 14th:

As of today, it looks like the SAG is openly supporting the WGA, with actors from shows like Family Guy, CSI, Without a Trace and others joining in the picketing. Writers from various shows have also asked fans to join them in picketing on Thursday in front of the Universal Studios. Support from some shows’ actors is no surprise - CSI cast member Marg Helgenberger is the wife of SAG president Alan Rosenberg - but fan favorite Family Guy is creating some in-house controversy with the show going ahead with unfinished scripts while the creator is on strike. It comes as no surprise that the actors would join in though, seeing how the SAG’s contract will run out in the summer of 2008 and any ruling the WGA may achieve would directly affect the actors (and directors) in the future.

Check E! Online for more info.

Nov 20th:

YouTube seems to have become the forum for many of the writers (fully using the inherent irony) with contributions by the writers of The Office and this from The Daily Show:

(Assorted YouTube videos by the WGA can be found here.)

Also showing support for the writers are fans of various tv shows, having heeded a call to join the WGA West in picketing in front of the Universal Studios last Friday, as well as organizing a flyover (Look Up in the Sky, a “CSI” Fans Banner) or sending out pizzas and sandwiches to the striking writers.
Since Les Moonves’s phone number has been leaked on the internet, fans calling in have apparently forced him to hire additional assistants to wield the calls, the same for NBC head Jeff Zucker (the numbers respectively are: 1-212-975-4545 and 1-818-777-100, just in case).

According to CSI writer and producer David Rambo, there will be no new episodes for network dramas should the strike not be resolved by mid-January, while many cable shows have their seasons in the can (since those are on a different schedule and encompass 12 episodes per season as opposed to a network show’s 21 - 24).
Networks may actually feel the impact of the strike sooner than that, since media buyers are ready to ask to get their money back from upfront packages by mid-December (source). FYI - advertising rates on network shows are set in advance for several months during sweeps months (November, February and May). Without new episodes, networks will have to restore to showing re-runs, which will bring in fewer viewers and thus won’t fulfill projected audience numbers on the basis of which ad space has been bought.

The writers have also established a blog, containing a petition anyone can sign in support of them.

Over on the movie front, the strike is also beginning to affect production, with some movies that were slanted to begin shooting in spring having been postponed, including Oliver Stone’s movie about the 1968 My Lai massacre “Pinkville” (Stone being a WGA member himself) as well as the new Johnny Depp movie “Shantaram” and others as Variety reports.

And just because it’s too good to not share:

Jan 5th, 2007:

Things are happening in the new year after more failed negotiations between the WGA and the AMPTP in previous months.

Tom Cruise’s resurrected United Artists has struck a temporary deal with the WGA (on the terms previously refused by the AMPTP) in order to go ahead with production. They can now hire WGA writers for their projects, which could be a powerful negotiation tool for the WGA in the future.

Furthermore, Jay Leno, David Letterman and Conan O’Brian have returned with their shows. Letterman’s production company had struck a separate deal and his shows omitted the standard scripted monologue at the beginning, while Leno is catching flack from the WGA for having written his own monologue (Leno’s a member of the WGA) with both sides claiming to be in the right. Read more a Deadline Hollywood Daily.

Although the return of these late night talk shows is controversial, they at the same time offer a good medium to make the WGA’s cause public to a wide audience, with each of the hosts a memeber of the WGA and supporter of the strike.

Jan 19th, 2008:

There isn’t much news about the strike itself, although the WGA successfully managed to undermine the Golden Globes Awards (a forced press announcement instead of the usual Hollywood stars extravaganza managed about a fourth of the usual audience for ABC) and tension in Hollywood is mounting when it comes to this year’s Academy Awards (both “scripted” shows”). There is still some controversy re the late night shows and WGA’S “divide and conquer” strategy (they granted a deal to Letterman who owns his own show, but did not do the likes for John Stewart, who only owns part of Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show” as well as “The Colbert Report” - thus making both property of Viacom). As of now, both of these shows are back on the air (with Stewart throwing somewhat of a hissy fit upon his return and Colbert dealing with it in his accustomed pseudo conservative way).
And even despite the open offer by people like George Clooney and Tom Hanks, offering to preside over further WGA and AMPTP meetings, it seems like the strike, at this point, has stalled (though Alec Baldwin has chipped in here from Canada - hello!- linking the strike to current foreign engagements of the US).

Nevertheless, things are happening. Specifically CBS, which, due to its recent heavy reliance on procedural/crime dramas, should be hit less than other networks, the networks are taking action. With the recent influx of reality tv programming (oh, the despair!), CBS has optioned to air episodes of Dexter from its subsidiary Showtime (quite how CBS intents to deal with the cable show’s more explicit visuals and language remains to be seen). At the same time, focusing on the unfailing stronghold of CSI, CBS is employing a new marketing strategy (apparently aimed at the more hard-core viewers of the show, thus acknowledging the main source of revenue for the show overall explicitly for maybe the first time - the dedicated viewer). Whith each rerun episode of the show (as CBS ran out of new episodes on Jan 10th, thus missing out on Feb sweeps to come), the network provides a 10 points news release of never before known facts about each episode on a weekly basis, pertaining to the individual reruns.
The first of these can be seen here: csipromo.jpg

No matter its effectiveness, CBS is at least turning to new market strategies - cashing in on the widely popular Dexter from one of its subsidiary channels as well as being aware of what their target audience wants with the CSI initiative.

Side note: For those unfamiliar with how US tv works.
US networks, ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX, make their main money from ad revenue - as in commercials shown in between shows. Thus, the more viewers any given show has, the more money a network will make from commercials shown during said show (a stark contrast to cable channels, who get their money from people subscribing to them). The network’s ad revenue is set on viewership during the so called “sweeps months” - November, February and May (so expect more dramatic eps of your favorite show during these months). The more viewers the networks command during these months, the more money they can ask for from companies eager to advertise during the network’s most-watched shows. These advertising rates are set in advance, so for any network missing out on February sweeps of this year, it means money lost, as fewer people watch reruns. Rule of thumb is that self-contained shows like CSI or WAT bring in more viewers on a rerun than, say, Grey’s Anatomy, as the latter develops their storylines over a season. Hence, a network like CBS, relying mostly on self-contained shows, won’t be hit quite as hard.

Jan 27th, 2008: Looking… more optimistic

With the Academy Awards looming on the horizon and considering the total disaster of this year’s Golden Globes, talks between the WGA and AMPTP seem to be going well. Since the actors have been more than supportive of the writers, tonights SAG Awards won’t be picketed, but the prospect of a botched Oscars ceremony seems to be a convincing argument for the moguls. At the same time, the WGA’s “divide and conquer” strategy is working with a number of side deals with various production companies, including RKO Pictures, UA, The Weinstein Company and Lionsgate amongst others. The WGA also have abandoned their plan for representation of reality tv and animation writers and instead focus on residuals from new media. According to Nikki Finke, talks are going well though a news blackout of the talks has prevented any official reporting.
Looks like the prospect of not being able to hold the Academy Awards, which would mean a loss of millions of dollars for the LA community, is making the AMPTP more amendable to the demands of the writers. February sweeps are already a lost cause for the major networks and will mean millions in lost revenue, but should the talks yield a resolution, things should be back to almost normal in time for May sweeps.

Feb 6th, 2008:
The popular media is reporting that the strike is pretty much over, but hey, it ain’t over till its over. The talks do seem to be progressing and I need to point out the Academy Awards later this month again, as aside from that, the strike has mainly hit television, but no Oscars and the movie biz will be hit as well. Call it additional incentive if you want, but I don’t think it’s surprising the AMPTP seems to be more willing to engage in talks with that looming on the horizon.

Meanwhile, the impact the strike has had on the networks is becoming clear. Check this article for the fall in ratings in January 2008 compared to the same month in 2007. While tv ratings are on a downward slide in general, due to various reasons including availability of tv shows on the internet, the drop in ratings that CBS suffered (23%) is way more than would occur naturally. I guess that’s additional incentive as well.

Feb 11th - Almost there.

A tentative deal between the WGA and AMPTP has been agreed on and drafted by the WGA. WGA East and West have informally accepted the (wording of the) deal, so the next step will be the vote by WGA leaders and members and things could be back to normal for the Oscars.

United Hollywood provides a short summary:
“It is an agreement that protects a future in which the Internet becomes the primary means of both content creation and delivery. It creates formulas for revenue-based residuals in new media, provides access to deals and financial data to help us evaluate and enforce those formulas, and establishes the principle that, ‘When they get paid, we get paid.’”      (bolding added for emphasis)

And a more complete, point by point summary of the draft here.